← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 38% | 39% | 2.57 | fair |
| Boavista win | 33% | 30% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Boavista +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 63% | 1.74 | value: +10% |
| Over | 45% | 37% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jhonatan · Rio Ave FC |
| 2' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 5' | ⚽ | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 7' | 🟨 | Martim Neto · Rio Ave FC |
| 10' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 76' | ⚽ | Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟥 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟥 | Amine Oudrhiri · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟨 |
| Ibrahima Camará · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 222.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1462.45 | 1534.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.98 | -18.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.21 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 25.36 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.10 |