← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 44% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 25% | 26% | 3.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Tidjany Touré · Gil Vicente FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mory Gbane · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Santi García · Gil Vicente FC |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jorge Aguirre · Gil Vicente FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jonathan Mutombo · Gil Vicente FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cauê · Gil Vicente FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 82' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟨 |
| Tidjany Touré · Gil Vicente FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Luís Asué · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1577.32 | 1512.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.23 | -18.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 5.09 | 5.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | 1.50 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 29.11 | 24.39 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.99 |