← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Mon, Nov 4, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 36% | 41% | 2.78 | value: +15% |
| CD Nacional win | 34% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CD Nacional +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Isaac · CD Nacional |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Rúben Macedo · CD Nacional |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 43' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara |
| 43' | 🟨 | Guilherme Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nigel Thomas · CD Nacional |
| 50' | 🟨 | Allison Safira · CD Santa Clara |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gustavo Klismahn · CD Santa Clara |
| 64' | 🟨 | Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
| 74' | 🟨 | Matheus Dias · CD Nacional |
| 74' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 🟨 |
| Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas França · CD Nacional |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 492.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1361.73 | 1493.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.34 | 16.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| league points | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 10.10 | 10.02 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.66 | 28.09 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.49 |