← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.87 | value: +14% |
| FC Arouca win | 20% | 21% | 4.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 9' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 24' | 🟨 | David Simão · FC Arouca |
| 28' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Zalazar · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 54' | ⚽ | Amine El Ouazzani · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 69' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 33.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1549.69 | 1735.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.38 | -24.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 8.15 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 1.24 |
| solidity v1 | -1.15 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 2.31 |