← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Mon, Oct 28, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Porto win | 73% | 74% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
| AVS win | 9% | 10% | 10.95 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Porto +1.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| AVS +1.25 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 39% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 61% | 1.95 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |