← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 39% | 34% | 2.46 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 31% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.25 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 62% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Over | 42% | 38% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Fabrício Garcia · GD Estoril Praia |
| 24' | ⚽ | Henrique Araújo · FC Arouca |
| 30' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pedro Amaral · GD Estoril Praia |
| 42' | ⚽ | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 64' | ⚽ | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Joel Robles · GD Estoril Praia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michel Costa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| ⚽ |
| Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 117.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1447.11 | 1560.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.77 | -12.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 20.90 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.08 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.23 | 25.54 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.80 |