← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Anzhony Rodrigues
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 45% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 23% | 20% | 4.36 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Jesús Castillo · Gil Vicente FC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 28' | ⚽ | Santi García · Gil Vicente FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Diogo Calila · CD Santa Clara |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mory Gbane · Gil Vicente FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandro Cruz · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Santi García · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 482.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1495.02 | 1544.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.89 | 13.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 20.22 | 20.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.82 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 25.04 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.07 |