← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 4, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 35% | 36% | 2.79 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 33% | 35% | 3.01 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Rio Ave FC +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 63% | 1.47 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Enea Mihaj · FC Famalicão |
| 21' | 🟨 | Omar Richards · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Patrick William · Rio Ave FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Amine Oudrhiri · Rio Ave FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · FC Famalicão |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ivan Zlobin · FC Famalicão |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ahmed Hassan · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ahmed Hassan · Rio Ave FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| coach days | 1525.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1541.02 | 1591.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.84 | -11.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -1.24 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 24.02 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 0.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.95 |