← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Vieira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 63% | 60% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Boavista win | 14% | 16% | 7.14 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Boavista −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 9' | 🟨 | Pedro Ferreira · CD Santa Clara |
| 20' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Almeida · Boavista |
| 36' | ⚽ | Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 39' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · CD Santa Clara |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pedro Gomes · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 456.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1482.83 | 1462.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.24 | -15.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 8.21 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -1.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.38 | 23.82 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.91 |