← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 16, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Boavista win | 24% | 23% | 4.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Bruno Onyemaechi · Boavista |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pedro Gomes · Boavista |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nani · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 36' | 🟨 | Manuel Keliano · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nani · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alan Ruiz · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Boavista |
| 56' | 🟨 | Tome Sousa · Boavista |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| 🟨 |
| Bruno Onyemaechi · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 15.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1452.20 | 1466.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.45 | -1.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 16.09 | 16.09 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 1.16 |