← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 35% | 32% | 2.78 | fair |
| Casa Pia AC win | 33% | 37% | 2.99 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 41% | 2.58 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Madson de Souza Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Rúben Ramos Ismael · Moreirense FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Raul Garcia Gonzalez · Casa Pia AC |
| 76' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raul Garcia Gonzalez · Casa Pia AC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andrian Kraev · Casa Pia AC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nuno Moreira · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ruben Kluivert · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Godfried Frimpong · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 105.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1488.70 | 1594.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.48 | 26.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 14.80 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 28.81 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.72 |