← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 56% | 46% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +10% |
| AVS win | 16% | 22% | 5.96 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AVS −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 54% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 46% | 2.57 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |