← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, Aug 30, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 66% | 64% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.70 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 13% | 16% | 7.50 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Moreirense FC +1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 61% | 1.82 | value: +11% |
| Under | 46% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |