← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 36% | 36% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Casa Pia AC win | 31% | 30% | 3.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 54% | 1.45 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 46% | 2.88 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara |
| 57' | ⚽ | Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 61' | 🟨 | Allison Safira · CD Santa Clara |
| 73' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Casa Pia AC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Max Svensson · Casa Pia AC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pedro Ferreira · CD Santa Clara |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gabriel Batista · CD Santa Clara |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 88' | 🟥 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| ⚽ |
| Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 84.00 | 420.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1496.88 | 1449.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.02 | 24.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 7.94 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.47 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.74 |