← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 11, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 35% | 35% | 2.82 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 34% | 36% | 2.88 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 60% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 40% | 2.59 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lucas Soares · CD Santa Clara |
| 41' | 🟨 | Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 44' | ⚽ | Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 49' | 🟨 | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jandro Orellana · GD Estoril Praia |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Allison Safira · CD Santa Clara |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
| 79' | 🟨 | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · GD Estoril Praia |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 80' | 🟨 | Allison Safira · CD Santa Clara |
| 81' | 🟨 | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 83' | ⚽ | João Costa · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | Vinicius Zanocelo · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 41.00 | 407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1470.54 | 1430.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.69 | 1.71 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.90 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 23.59 | 24.90 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -1.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | — |