← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 02:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Vitória SC win | 42% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 31% | 33% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Vitória SC +0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 50% | 2.19 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.