← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, May 17, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Vieira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 61% | 56% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.36 | value: +13% |
| Casa Pia AC win | 17% | 18% | 5.87 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Casa Pia AC −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 45% | 2.41 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 22' | ⚽ | Felippe Cardoso · Casa Pia AC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Felippe Cardoso · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Beni Mukendi · Casa Pia AC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nuno Moreira · Casa Pia AC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Famalicão |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 60' | 🟨 | Telasco Segovia · Casa Pia AC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nathan · FC Famalicão |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Neto · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Paes · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 77.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1586.88 | 1506.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.72 | -6.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 42.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 5.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.34 | 27.46 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.22 |