← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, May 5, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 74% | 75% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.11 | fair |
| Casa Pia AC win | 10% | 8% | 10.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Casa Pia AC −1.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 62% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 38% | 2.78 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 75' | 🟥 | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 83' | 🟨 | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Lameiras · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felippe Cardoso · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 4.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1750.76 | 1520.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.27 | 25.02 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 62.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 28.23 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.04 |