← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 07:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Porto win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 33% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| FC Porto −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.84 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.