← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 47% | 43% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +10% |
| Chaves win | 24% | 23% | 4.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 57% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 43% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Neto · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Chaves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Vasco Fernandes · Chaves |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kelechi Nwakali · Chaves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Yuki Soma · Casa Pia AC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Yuki Soma · Casa Pia AC |
| 69' | 🟨 | João Correia · Chaves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Telasco Segovia · Casa Pia AC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Leandro Sanca · Chaves |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| ⚽ |
| André Lacximicant · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 86.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1510.02 | 1455.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.48 | -9.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| league points | 32.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 29.35 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.89 |