← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 39% | 34% | 2.58 | fair |
| Casa Pia AC win | 32% | 35% | 3.01 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 63% | 1.71 | value: +8% |
| Over | 44% | 37% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Tamblé Monteiro · Portimonense |
| 25' | 🟨 | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 26' | ⚽ | Alemão · Portimonense |
| 34' | ⚽ | Yuki Soma · Casa Pia AC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Nuno Moreira · Casa Pia AC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Igor Formiga · Portimonense |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nermin Zolotić · Casa Pia AC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kosuke Nakamura · Portimonense |
| 87' | 🟨 | Beni Mukendi · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Beni Mukendi · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 🟥 |
| Beni Mukendi · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1534.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1439.31 | 1513.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.24 | 1.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.66 | 28.66 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 0.69 |