← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 84% | 1.29 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 16% | 11% | 6.31 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 8% | 5% | 13.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −1.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Porto −1.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 68% | 1.65 | value: +13% |
| Under | 42% | 32% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Porto |
| 43' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 60' | 🟨 | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 69' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 🟥 |
| Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enea Mihaj · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2508.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1883.61 | 1564.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.15 | 4.30 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| league points | 58.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.18 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 1.90 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 24.44 |
| state index | 1.32 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.52 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.51 | 1.34 |