← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 07:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.26 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 11% | 9% | 9.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Porto −1.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Vitória SC −1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 64% | 1.78 | value: +14% |
| Under | 46% | 36% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.