← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 43% | 47% | 2.26 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 27% | 23% | 3.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | André Castro · Moreirense FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mansur · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Bruno Brígido · Moreirense FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kialonda Gaspar · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 54' | ⚽ | André Luiz · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vinicius Mingotti · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mansur · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 89' | 🟥 | Mansur · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 281.00 | 646.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1569.48 | 1497.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.16 | 8.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 8.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 1.89 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.85 | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.38 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.93 |