← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 44% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +12% |
| Portimonense win | 28% | 27% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Portimonense −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Carraça · Chaves |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Chaves |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Martins · Portimonense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Chaves |
| 72' | ⚽ | Carlinhos · Portimonense |
| 76' | ⚽ | João Correia · Chaves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lucas Ventura · Portimonense |
| 83' | ⚽ | Midana Cassamá · Portimonense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Igor Formiga · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| coach days | 219.00 | 1527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1457.20 | 1426.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.17 | -18.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | — |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 8.85 | 5.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | -2.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.85 | 24.73 |
| state index | -0.88 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 2.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.98 |