← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 38% | 42% | 2.59 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 31% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 60% | 1.59 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 40% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Tidjany Touré · Gil Vicente FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | João Teixeira · Rio Ave FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alex Pinto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Aziz · Rio Ave FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Martim Neto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tidjany Touré · Gil Vicente FC |
| 61' | 🟥 | Tidjany Touré · Gil Vicente FC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Joca Fernandes · Rio Ave FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| coach days | 1344.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1531.85 | 1524.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.93 | -10.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.74 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.85 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.07 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.33 |