← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Vieira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 53% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Vizela win | 21% | 19% | 4.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| FC Famalicão −0.75 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 11' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 20' | 🟨 | José Luis Rodríguez · FC Famalicão |
| 43' | ⚽ | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 47' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Busnić · Vizela |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jason Lokilo · Vizela |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sava Petrov · Vizela |
| 82' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 36.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1558.68 | 1450.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.02 | -14.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| league points | 31.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.61 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.10 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.02 |