← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 5, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Iancu Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Boavista win | 25% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Boavista −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 39' | ⚽ | Bruno Duarte · Farense |
| 53' | 🟨 | Vincent Sasso · Boavista |
| 62' | 🟨 | Fabrício Isidoro · Farense |
| 78' | 🟨 | Igor Rossi · Farense |
| 78' | 🟨 | Luís Santos · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Bruno Duarte · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio de São Lúis |
| coach days | 429.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1468.78 | 1502.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.87 | 2.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.16 | 6.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -1.07 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.79 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.85 |