← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 45% | 41% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +9% |
| Casa Pia AC win | 25% | 26% | 3.94 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 39% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Neto · Casa Pia AC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Neto · Casa Pia AC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Diogo Santos Nascimento · Vizela |
| 40' | 🟨 | Telasco Segovia · Casa Pia AC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ricardo Batista · Casa Pia AC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Alberto Soro · Vizela |
| 57' | ⚽ | Felippe Cardoso · Casa Pia AC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Fernando Varela · Casa Pia AC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Felippe Cardoso · Casa Pia AC |
| 76' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| 🟨 |
| Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 76' | 🟥 | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 121.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1471.44 | 1495.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.66 | 18.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 14.85 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.61 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.93 |
| solidity v1 | -1.75 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 28.36 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.65 |