← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 74% | 73% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.64 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 9% | 11% | 11.01 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| GD Estoril Praia +1.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 69% | 1.68 | value: +16% |
| Under | 43% | 31% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 37' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vinicius Zanocelo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 46' | 🟨 | Heriberto Tavares · GD Estoril Praia |
| 65' | 🟥 | Diogo Costa · FC Porto |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 69' | ⚽ | Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 78' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | Joao Marques · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 1 | Red cards | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟨 |
| Marcelo Carné · GD Estoril Praia |
| 88' | 🟨 | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 89' | 🟥 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 2494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.76 |
| elo | 1468.37 | 1918.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.32 | 17.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 1.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 25.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 15.01 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 2.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 2.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 2.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 26.03 |
| state index | -0.49 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 2.69 |