← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 55% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.91 | value: +11% |
| Farense win | 20% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Arouca −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.03 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 49' | 🟨 | Facundo Cáseres · Farense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ignacio de Arruabarrena · FC Arouca |
| 68' | ⚽ | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bruno Duarte · Farense |
| 88' | ⚽ | Bruno Duarte · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Moreira · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Facundo Cáseres · Farense |
| 90' | 🟥 | Facundo Cáseres · Farense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 10 |
| 17 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days |
| 150.00 |
| 423.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1582.13 | 1489.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.43 | -25.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -1.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.87 | — |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.83 |