← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 86% | 88% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 11.20 | fair |
| Chaves win | 4% | 3% | 26.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves −2.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 69% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Júnior Pius · Chaves |
| 31' | 🟨 | Hugo Souza · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 45' | 🟨 | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rúben Ribeiro · Chaves |
| 62' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bernardo Sousa · Chaves |
| 65' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Chaves |
| 68' | ⚽ | João Neves · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vasco Fernandes · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 637.00 | 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1913.71 | 1458.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.50 | -6.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 64.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -0.95 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 28.15 |
| state index | 1.05 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 0.79 |