← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 88% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 10.10 | fair |
| Vizela win | 5% | 3% | 23.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −2.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Porto −2.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 70% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 30% | 2.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Pepê · Vizela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Matías Lacava · Vizela |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bruno Costa · Vizela |
| 49' | 🟨 | Matías Lacava · Vizela |
| 49' | 🟥 | Matías Lacava · Vizela |
| 55' | ⚽ | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 68' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 77' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 89' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 36 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 2480.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1916.78 | 1473.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.83 | 20.30 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.53 |
| league points | 55.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.07 | 7.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.61 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.01 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 1.48 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 25.58 |
| state index | 1.59 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.36 | 1.11 |