← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 3, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 40% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +4% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 32% | 29% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| FC Porto −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 31' | 🟨 | Morato · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 44' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 61' | 🟥 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 75' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Danny Namaso · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 2467.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.81 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1895.76 | 1921.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.38 | -3.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 1.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.89 |
| league points | 49.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.83 | 1.86 |
| solidity v1 | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 27.32 |
| state index | 1.12 | 1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 2.65 |