← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Feb 23, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 42% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 33' | ⚽ | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
| 38' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jason · FC Arouca |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sorriso · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 56' | ⚽ | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 61' | 🟨 | Enea Mihaj · FC Famalicão |
| 64' | ⚽ | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 75' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 🟨 |
| Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟥 | José Luis Rodríguez · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 114.00 | 814.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1585.17 | 1567.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.62 | 8.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 24.29 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.12 |