← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 66% | 77% | 1.50 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
| Farense win | 16% | 9% | 6.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 39' | 🟨 | Bruno Duarte · Farense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pastor · Farense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Zalazar · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 62' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 63' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 73' | 🟨 | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 74' | ⚽ | Mohamed Belloumi · Farense |
| 85' | ⚽ | Cher Ndour · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matheus · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Sikou Niakaté · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1296.00 | 382.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1740.49 | 1514.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.35 | 2.39 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 8.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.06 | — |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.38 |