← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 84% | 87% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 9.27 | fair |
| Vizela win | 5% | 2% | 18.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −2.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 70% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | David Neres · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 25' | ⚽ | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 30' | ⚽ | Tiago Gouveia · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bruno Costa · Vizela |
| 45' | ⚽ | David Neres · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 48' | ⚽ | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 52' | 🟨 | Anderson · Vizela |
| 59' | 🟨 | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 73' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Busnić · Vizela |
| 88' |
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| ⚽ |
| Marcos Leonardo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 597.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.13 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1908.68 | 1456.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.60 | -28.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.93 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | — |
| league points | 52.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 25.29 |
| state index | 1.61 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.68 | 1.04 |