← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 35% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Chaves win | 34% | 42% | 2.84 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Chaves +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 55% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 45% | 2.36 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Raphael Guzzo · Chaves |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Lourenço · Boavista |
| 39' | 🟨 | Vasco Fernandes · Chaves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Júnior Pius · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sandro Cruz · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 59' | 🟥 | Carraça · Chaves |
| 71' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pedro Malheiro · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| Hugo Souza · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 169.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1455.46 | 1500.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.45 | 2.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.92 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.02 |