← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Feb 16, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 44% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 25% | 24% | 3.96 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 64% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Aziz · Rio Ave FC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 43' | 🟨 | João Graça · Rio Ave FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Martín Aguirregabiria · FC Famalicão |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mateo Tanlongo · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Adrien Silva · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Luis Rodríguez · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mirko Topić · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Aderllan Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josué Sá · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 807.00 | 1294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1550.56 | 1512.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.06 | 12.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 23.57 | — |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.80 |