← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 13, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 48% | 56% | 2.03 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Vizela win | 25% | 20% | 4.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 55% | 1.89 | value: +4% |
| Over | 49% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 25' | 🟨 | Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Diogo Santos Nascimento · Vizela |
| 50' | 🟨 | Martim Neto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sava Petrov · Vizela |
| 56' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sava Petrov · Vizela |
| 63' | 🟥 | Sava Petrov · Vizela |
| 70' | 🟨 | Abdul Awudu · Vizela |
| 71' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| coach days | 227.00 | 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1522.21 | 1443.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.80 | -40.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 8.90 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.64 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.30 | 25.29 |
| state index | 0.13 | -1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.05 |