← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Mon, Feb 12, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.90 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 12% | 13% | 8.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 61% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 39% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 39' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jason · FC Arouca |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jason · FC Arouca |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 74' | 🟨 | Oriol Busquets · FC Arouca |
| 86' | ⚽ | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 88' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 🟨 |
| Wendell · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 103.00 | 2447.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 7.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 6.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1569.98 | 1903.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.25 | -1.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| league points | 25.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 9.20 | 8.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 1.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 25.39 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.76 |