← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 38% | 39% | 2.60 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 34% | 33% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 45% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 55% | 2.01 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Vincent Sasso · Boavista |
| 17' | 🟨 | Mor Ndiaye · GD Estoril Praia |
| 29' | ⚽ | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 54' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 61' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vinicius Zanocelo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bruno Lourenço · Boavista |
| 86' | 🟨 | João Carlos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Boavista |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟨 |
| João Gonçalves · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 71.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1492.21 | 1486.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.32 | -18.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 5.01 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -1.02 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 24.77 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.12 |