← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Feb 9, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 48% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.14 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Carlinhos · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 13' | ⚽ | Léo Jabá · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 23' | 🟨 | Lucas Ventura · Portimonense |
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Kosuke Nakamura · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 28' | 🟨 | Rúben Lima · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 38' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nilton Varela · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 89' | 🟨 | João Reis · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 89' | 🟨 | André Luiz · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | — | 1469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1474.14 | 1443.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.46 | 0.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.84 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 5.09 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -0.82 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.91 |