← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chaves win | 41% | 40% | 2.36 | fair |
| Farense win | 31% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Farense −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Chaves −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 2 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |