← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 3, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 84% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 6% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −1.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Porto −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 67% | 1.67 | value: +11% |
| Under | 43% | 33% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 20' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 36' | 🟨 | Miguel Nóbrega · Rio Ave FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mateo Tanlongo · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jhonatan · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 23 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 2438.00 | 1281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1912.61 | 1495.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.20 | 1.51 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 44.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 3.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 1.18 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.33 | — |
| state index | 1.72 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.12 |