← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Wed, Jan 31, 08:45 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 73% | 76% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.85 | fair |
| Chaves win | 10% | 9% | 10.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 65% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 35% | 2.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Rúben Ribeiro · Chaves |
| 33' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Chaves |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Zalazar · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 64' | ⚽ | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Correia · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟥 | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1278.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1764.83 | 1453.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.75 | -18.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| league points | 36.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 13.08 | 10.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 31.25 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.20 |