← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Wed, Jan 31, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Vieira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 44% | 43% | 2.22 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 29% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 44% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 56% | 2.04 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Patrick William · Rio Ave FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Joca Fernandes · Rio Ave FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Volnei Feltes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | ⚽ | Heriberto Tavares · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amine Oudrhiri · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1278.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1498.08 | 1475.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.69 | -7.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 10.03 | 11.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.77 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.54 |