← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Pires Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 49% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 23% | 25% | 4.27 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Boavista −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Hélio Varela · Portimonense |
| 25' | ⚽ | Sylvester Jasper · Portimonense |
| 34' | 🟨 | Vincent Sasso · Boavista |
| 35' | ⚽ | Carlinhos · Portimonense |
| 67' | ⚽ | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 72' | 🟨 | Hélio Varela · Portimonense |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luan Campos · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| coach days | 58.00 | 1457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1515.35 | 1427.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.39 | -27.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -1.03 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 23.82 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.78 |