← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 20, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.52 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 11% | 7% | 9.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Moreirense FC −1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 65% | 1.76 | value: +14% |
| Under | 45% | 35% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 34' | 🟨 | Rúben Ramos Ismael · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 69' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 72' | ⚽ | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Aparício · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 2424.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1905.18 | 1558.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.82 | 1.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 28.51 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.28 |