← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Thu, Jan 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 50% | 46% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +5% |
| FC Famalicão win | 24% | 27% | 4.07 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +5% |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| -5' | 🟨 | Cristián Borja · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 21' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 26' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 27' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Famalicão |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 64' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 73' | ⚽ | Cristián Borja · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 89' | 🟨 | João Moutinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 778.00 | 1265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1564.51 | 1758.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.56 | -9.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 5.14 | 3.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 1.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.38 | 30.56 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.70 |